Friday 17 December 2010

The unfair Iraqi elections

Yeah I know this is sort of overdue but I believe we must know! I did some simple mathematics and found some interesting statistics. Please note I did this while the results were still coming so it's 95% accurate.

This shows how unfairly the seats were divided:

Governorate-seats-registered voters-votes needed for 1 seat
Anbar   14   802,000   57,286
Babil   16   961,000   60,063
Baghdad   68   4,599,000   67,632
Basra   24   1,466,000   61,083
Dahuk   10   574,000   57,400
Dhi Qar   18   993,000   55,166
Diyala   13   840,000   64,615
Erbil   14   917,000   65,500
Karbala   10   564,000   56,400
Kirkuk   12   787,000   65,583
Maysan   10   561,000   56,100
Muthanna   7   379,000   54,143
Najaf   12   696,000   58,000
Ninewa   31   1,702,000   54,903
Qadisiyah   11   619,000   56,273
Salaheddin   12   696,000   58,000
Sulaymaniyah   17   1,098,000   64,588
Wassit   11   638,000   58,000
Total   310   18,892,000   60,942

Now what we see is that Baghdad, Basra, Diyala, Erbil, Kirkuk and as Sulaymaniyah are underrepresented.  Three multi-ethnic governorates, one Shi'a and one Kurdish one, or if you want to be precised, 2 Shi'a, 1 Sunni and 2 Kurdish governorates.
This however means 1 out of 9 (or 2 out of 10) Shi'a governorates are underrepresented, 1 out of 4 Sunni governorates are underrepresented and 3 out of 4 Kurdish governorates are undrrepresented.

On average 60,942 Iraqi votes = 1 seat
On average 63,698 Kurdish votes = 1 seat
On average 60,374 Arab votes = 1 seat

In reality this is even worse as the Kurdish turnout was much higher.
So far there have been 9,871,962 Iraqi votes including 2,323,523 Kurdish and 7,548,439 Arab votes
Currently Arabs are projected to get 255 seats and Kurds 55 seats
That means 29,601 Arab votes = 1 seat
And 42,246 Kurdish votes = 1 seat
It means 1 Arab's vote is worth 1.5x as much as a Kurd's vote. 2 Arab votes are worth 3 Kurdish votes.

It reminds me of Lebanon's undemocratic system were 1 Christian vote is worth 3 Muslim votes (with 600K registered Christian and 1.8 milion registered Muslim votes), a system which has been rigged to give a quart of the population half of the seats.

List-Seats-Number of seats they actually deserved (per nr. of votes they recieved)
Al-Iraqiyya National List   91   84
State of Law Coalition   89   84
National Iraqi Alliance   70   63
Kurdistan Alliance   43   50
Gorran Movement   8   14
Iraqi Accord Front   6   9
Unity Alliance of Iraq   4   9
Kurdistan Islamic Union   4   7
Islamic Group of Kurdistan   2   5
Minorities   8   0


I dislike goran becuase they have cost kurds a seat in kirkuk, kurds should have held 63% of kirkuks seats (8 seats) but due to arab cheating and goran/islamic parties playing around we lost valuable seats in kirkuk. It's obvious kurds are a majority in kirkuk based on the 2005 referendum which I'm positive the arab and turkmen said no to (as they are anti-kurdish)

This were the results in Kirkuk -
542,688 62.91% said yes and 37.09% said no.

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